On 2 February 2022, the Russian navy was to begin an exercise in Irish waters. The Irish government had pleaded with the Kremlin not to go ahead, but in vain. Only when Irish fishermen intervened did the Kremlin decide to abandon the exercise. Any day now, Russian warships will return to Irish waters for another exercise, and the Dublin government can’t count on Irish fishermen to once again solve its predicament. Now that the neutral country needs to defend itself and its waters, it can only hope and plead.

‘Defence Forces “hyper aware” as Russian navy expected to conduct drills,’ the Irish Examiner reported on 17 September. The Irish Defence Forces are still hyper aware, for the Russian navy can arrive in Ireland’s Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) at any time. After a few embarrassing mishaps in the Black Sea at the hands of Ukraine, it is trying to prove its worth. Earlier this month, Russia conducted the massive Ocean 2024 exercise with the navy of China’s People’s Liberation Army and People’s Liberation Army air force. The mostly Russian exercise involved 400 warships, submarines and support vessels, more than 120 naval aircraft and more than 90,000 personnel.

Ireland’s waters weren’t part of Ocean 2024, but in recent years the Russian navy has shown considerable interest in Ireland. In May last year, for example, several Russian navy ships entered Ireland’s EEZ south of the country  –  and stayed put. ‘[The situation] is carefully monitored by Ireland and by others and that is an ongoing scenario where people track what’s happening within international waters and, indeed, within the Irish exclusive economic zone, which is quite large in itself,’ Tanaiste (Foreign Minister) Micheal Martin said after the ships arrived, adding that ‘I don’t see it as a threat, but it’s something we are very conscious of and we keep a very close eye on.’ It was not the first time Russian naval and merchant ships had mysteriously parked themselves off Ireland’s southern coast, which just happens to be home to an extraordinary concentration of undersea internet cables.

Indeed, some time in late 2021 or early 2022 the Russian navy decided to conduct an exercise in the EEZ. The exercise was to begin on 3 February 2022. The Irish government sought to prevent it from happening by pleading with the Kremlin and calling the exercise ‘unwelcome and unwanted’, but to no avail. Russia’s ambassador to Ireland, Yuri Filatov, declared that ‘there is nothing to be disturbed, concerned, or anguished about and I have extensively explained that to our Irish colleagues’.

The Irish government was powerless to make the exercise go away. In late January, it issued a statement advising Irish fishermen that the exercise would begin on 3 February and that vessels should be aware of ‘serious safety risks’ in the area and avoid entering it. Russia had indicated the exercises would involve naval artillery and rocket launches, the advisory explained. The fishermen were outraged. ‘This is the livelihoods of fishermen and fishing families all around the coastline here,’ Patrick Murphy, the chief executive of the Irish South and West Fish Producers Organisation, told RTE radio. ‘It’s our waters. Can you imagine if the Russians were applying to go onto the mainland of Ireland to go launching rockets, how far would they get with that?’

The fishermen took action. ‘Our boats will be going out to that area on the first of February to go fishing,’ Murphy told Politico on 25 January. ‘When one boat needs to return to port, another will head out so there is a continuous presence on the water. If that is in proximity to where the exercise is going, we are expecting that the Russian naval services abide by the anti-collision regulations.’ It was a clever move. By fielding a constant presence of fishing boats in the planned exercise waters, the fishermen would prevent the Russian navy from carrying out the exercise. The Kremlin backed down. Now the Irish fishermen’s showdown with the Kremlin is headed for the big screen: well-deserved fame for the West’s most unexpected national security strategists.

The Irish government can’t count on Murphy and his men to bail it out once again. Russia is prepared, and fishermen should not have to improvise national-security fixes. The Irish government is on its own, and that means having to face off the Russian navy and other prospective intruders with the means of the Irish Defence Forces. That’s a total of two army brigades, an army training centre, 17 aircraft (including helicopters) and six patrol vessels, some of which seem to be regularly in poor repair.

It’s not much with which to deter an intruder, even one merely wanting to frighten Ireland by loitering on top of the undersea cables connecting the world. No wonder Irish ministers firmly declare that the Irish Defence Forces are ‘hyper aware’ and that the government is ‘keeping a close eye’ on potential intruders: the country can do little more than be hyper aware.

Indeed, Ireland – which was so skillfully on trend during globalisation’s exuberant years and has so richly capitalised on globalised business – has thoroughly failed to spot the deteriorating situation around it. Other European countries are beefing up their armed forces, which, for the most part, were far larger than the Irish Defence Forces to begin with. Sweden and Finland, for so long neutral and then militarily non-aligned, have joined NATO. Neutral Ireland, by contrast, seems frozen in globalisation time – and even if it decided to shore up its defence now, this wouldn’t yield results any time soon.

That makes the many companies that have set up their European headquarters in Ireland (and depend on undersea cables to do business) highly vulnerable. Will they start leaving the island? We can’t know. What’s clear is that Ireland, a nation that bet everything on globalisation, is riding straight into a security dilemma.