In Turkey, a nation long viewed as the world’s sole secular Muslim democracy, political Islam has become deeply entrenched. The past quarter-century has seen seismic shifts in the country’s political landscape, with the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP), led by President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan at the helm for most of this period. However, recent local elections have unveiled a new dynamic: a growing rivalry within the Islamist camp that could potentially pave the way for a secular resurgence.

The local elections on 31 March 2024 marked a turning point in Turkish politics. For the first time since the party’s inception, Erdogan’s AKP found itself trailing behind the secular Republican People’s Party (CHP). This unexpected outcome was not solely due to the opposition’s improved strategies or public dissatisfaction with the government’s economic policies. A significant factor was the emergence of the Islamist New Welfare Party (YRP), a political entity with roots older than the AKP itself.

Founded in 2018, the YRP is effectively the successor of the Welfare Party (RP), which played a pivotal role in Turkish politics four decades ago. Led by Fatih Erbakan, son of former Prime Minister Necmettin Erbakan, the YRP has quickly established itself as a formidable player in the Islamist political scene.

The YRP’s success in the recent local elections, securing 6.19 per cent of the vote and control of several cities, has sent shockwaves through the Turkish political establishment. This achievement is particularly noteworthy given the party’s relatively recent formation and its strategic decision to distance itself from the AKP-led People’s Alliance.

Economics professor Korkut Boratav has characterised the AKP era as an ‘unparalleled period of redistributive shock’ in Turkish history, attributing this to the implementation of significant tax burdens on the public. The YRP, echoing the attacks of Republican People’s Party, has vocally opposed Erdogan’s economic measures, effectively tapping into growing public discontent.

The YRP’s rise can be attributed to its adherence to traditional campaign methods, reminiscent of its predecessor’s historical success. While embracing modern communications, the party has prioritized direct voter engagement through community events and local outreach. This approach has helped the YRP establish trust among conservative voters who have grown disillusioned with the AKP but remain hesitant to support the secular CHP.

International events have also played a role in shaping domestic political dynamics. The war in Gaza, for instance, has boosted the YRP’s popularity among those who otherwise might have supported Erdogan’s ruling party. The YRP’s decision to abstain from the AKP’s Greater Palestine Rally, instead emphasising the need for more concrete actions such as severing trade ties with Israel, has resonated with many voters.

The rivalry between the AKP and YRP extends beyond electoral competition. It has begun to influence policy decisions, as evidenced by the AKP’s withdrawal from the Istanbul Convention on domestic violence in 2021 in the face of Islamist opposition. This move, widely seen as a concession to conservative pressure led by the YRP, demonstrates the party’s growing influence in shaping Turkey’s political agenda. More recent controversies, such as a debate between YouTube personalities Asrın Tok and Diamond Tema on the applicability of Sharia law in Turkey, further illustrate the pervasive influence of political Islam. The subsequent investigation into Tema for allegedly insulting religious values, which forced him to leave the country, may have been partly motivated by the AKP’s desire to pre-empt YRP criticism. The YRP’s influence is also evident in more mundane policy areas. A recent draft law on the euthanasia of stray dogs, a contentious issue in Turkey, aligns closely with the YRP’s campaign promises to remove stray animals from the streets for public safety.

As Turkey looks towards the 2028 elections, when President Erdogan will be constitutionally barred from seeking another term, the political landscape appears increasingly fluid. The ultra-conservative YRP, led by Fatih Erbakan, could paradoxically play a crucial role in facilitating the rise of the secular CHP by siphoning votes from the AKP’s conservative base.

However, for the CHP to capitalise on this opportunity and secure a position of power in 2028, it must walk a fine line. The party needs to preserve its secular principles while implementing strategies that appeal to conservative voters who have traditionally supported Islamist parties.

The YRP’s future trajectory remains uncertain. Will it follow in the footsteps of the Young Party (GP), which briefly shone in the 2002 elections only to fade into obscurity, or will it continue to expand its influence and become a permanent fixture in Turkish politics?

The timing of the next general election could be crucial in determining the YRP’s fate. If elections are held as scheduled, the party may continue its slow but steady growth. However, the opposition’s calls for early elections add an element of unpredictability to the political calculus.

The emerging rivalry between Islamist parties in Turkey presents both challenges and opportunities for the country’s political future. As the AKP’s dominance wanes, the rising influence of the YRP could paradoxically create space for secular parties to gain ground. However, success for any political faction will depend on their ability to navigate Turkey’s evolving political landscape and appeal to a broad spectrum of voters across the ideological divide.The influence of political Islam remains deeply ingrained in Turkish society. Any shift towards secularism is likely to be gradual and nuanced, requiring careful negotiation of the country’s complex social and political terrain.