The 47th Summit of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) held at the end of October in the Malaysian capital of Kuala Lumpur was a fairly noteworthy event as ASEAN summits go. Representing the vibrant economies of Southeast Asia and central to the institutional architecture of the Asia-Pacific, ASEAN’s summits usually provide rare opportunities for the bigger regional powers to convene together, with world leaders typically travelling to whichever country holds the rotating chair for ASEAN for that year (in the case of 2025, that is Malaysia).

While most summits are characterised by dry and timid communiques rather than concrete action (particularly over major geopolitical challenges, such as the Myanmar conflict and the South China Sea dispute), this summit saw some notable highlights. President Trump made his first official visit to Southeast Asia as part of his second term, gaining some viral attention for dancing along with Malaysian dancers organised to greet him. Trump and Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim later oversaw the signing of the Kuala Lumpur Peace Accord between Thailand and Cambodia, which expanded upon the ceasefire agreement reached in July between both countries after serious border clashes. Trump also unveiled a series of trade agreements with Malaysia and Cambodia, as well as the frameworks for deals with Thailand and Vietnam.

Yet beyond the inevitable media focus on Trump, the ASEAN Summit witnessed another historic moment, namely the inclusion of the small country of Timor-Leste as ASEAN’s 11th member. The flag of Timor-Leste (also known as East Timor) was added alongside the flags of the ten other members of ASEAN in a formal ceremony. Timor-Leste’s Prime Minister Xanana Gusmão hailed the move, stating: ‘For the people of Timor-Leste, this is not only a dream realised, but a powerful affirmation of our journey – one marked by resilience, determination and hope.’ Anwar, for his part, stated that Timor-Leste’s accession ‘completes the ASEAN family’. Clips of Timor-Leste’s delegates, visibly moved while watching the ceremony, went viral.

Timor-Leste’s journey into ASEAN has certainly been a long and torturous one. Timor-Leste had first applied for ASEAN membership in 2011, but was only granted observer status in 2022. At the 46th ASEAN Summit held in May of this year, Timor-Leste was formally granted full membership, with the accession formalised on 26 October. Timor-Leste’s current president, José Ramos-Horta, an independence leader and Nobel Peace Prize laureate, once quipped that it was easier to enter heaven than to enter ASEAN.

Timor-Leste’s accession into ASEAN ultimately presents a diplomatic milestone for one of the world’s youngest countries, having gained independence only in 2002. The entry of the small country of 1.3 million people into one of the world’s most prominent inter-governmental organisations serves as an affirmation of how far Timor-Leste has come from the devastation of conflict. After nearly 400 years of Portuguese colonial rule, East Timor declared independence in 1975, only to be invaded by Indonesian troops a few days later. The country was subsequently incorporated as Indonesia’s 27th province. What followed was a brutal 24-year occupation, with the Timorese resisting through both armed resistance and non-violent means. The occupation would devastate much of the country, with between 120,000 and 200,000 Timorese (about a quarter to a third of the population) killed due to violence, hunger, and disease.

After the fall of the Indonesian dictator Suharto in 1998, the Indonesian government agreed to hold a popular referendum over the future of the province. The East Timorese population backed independence by an overwhelming margin, triggering a final wave of violence by vengeful pro-Indonesian militias, in which between 1,500 to 3,000 Timorese were killed, and an estimated 70 to 80 per cent of Timor-Leste’s buildings and infrastructure destroyed. The humanitarian crisis only subsided after a UN-backed, Australian-led peacekeeping force landed in the country. Following a brief period of UN-led state building, Timor-Leste declared independence on 20 May 2002.

Unusually for a post-colonial state emerging from conflict and foreign intervention, the East Timorese were able to establish a functioning democracy. According to the US-based advocacy group Freedom House, Timor-Leste is currently the only country in Southeast Asia whose political system is rated as ‘free’. Notwithstanding a major political crisis in 2006 (where regional divisions within the military and police spiralled into violent unrest in the capital Dili, prompting the return of international peacekeepers), Timor-Leste has up to now held eight free and fair elections as well as five peaceful transitions of power. Civil liberties such as freedom of expression, freedom of the press, and freedom of religion are generally respected. Female participation in the political process remains high, helped in part by legislative frameworks like the 30 per cent female parliamentary quota introduced after independence.

Timor-Leste’s civil society space remains vibrant, drawing upon a long history where organisations such as student groups and the Catholic Church played a pivotal role in resisting the Indonesian occupation. Youth politics remain a potent force – in mid-September, students gathered in Dili to protest two controversial parliamentary moves, namely the acquisition of brand-new SUVs for every legislator, and a lifetime pension scheme for former MPs and top officeholders. The scale of the demonstrations ultimately forced parliament to retreat on both laws. Foreign observers were quick to draw comparisons with the other Gen Z-led anti-corruption movements seen in Indonesia, Nepal, and the Philippines.

With the entry of Timor-Leste, ASEAN has now gained a new democracy to join its diverse grouping of one-party states, absolute monarchies, and military juntas. But what explains the durability of Timor-Leste’s democracy in a region generally unfriendly to liberal democracy? Scholars have pointed to the East Timorese people’s history of collective resistance to the Indonesian occupation, where a national identity was forged through the bringing together of various strands of society in a common struggle. This history of resistance, solidarity, and resilience would help inform the commitment of the East Timorese towards a free and democratic Timor-Leste. As Prime Minister Gusmão would note during the 47th ASEAN Summit: ‘Our accession [to ASEAN] is a testament to the spirit of our people, a young democracy, born from our struggle.’

To be sure, there are challenges in Timor-Leste’s democracy that limit its effectiveness. Like many of their fellow Southeast Asian democracies, such as Malaysia, Indonesia and the Philippines, Timor-Leste’s democracy remains blighted by clientelism and political patronage. Politics generally revolves around charismatic leadership rather than ideology, and continues to be dominated by the ‘Generation of 75’, a group of aging political leaders and elites who played central roles in the resistance against the Indonesian occupation. Regional differences also play a major role in electoral dynamics, often overlapping with contested memories of the occupation (with the eastern districts claiming to have suffered more than the western half of the country). State capacity remains weak, hindering the state’s ability to enforce laws and deliver essential services.

The biggest challenge for Timor-Leste remains its fragile socio-economic indicators. It remains the poorest country in Southeast Asia, with 42 per cent of the population living below the national poverty line. The country suffers from one of the world’s highest rates of child malnutrition, while access to education and healthcare remains limited. Timor-Leste is overwhelmingly dependent on petroleum revenues, with the country’s Petroleum Fund, established to manage oil and gas revenues, currently financing some 80 per cent of the country’s public spending. Concerns have been raised about the long-term sustainability of the fund, given depleting oil production and excessive withdrawals.

It is argued that membership of ASEAN will provide Timor-Leste with access to larger markets and foreign direct investments (FDI), as well as opportunities to further integrate into regional supply chains. This, in turn, will allow Dili to diversify its economy and generate employment. However, to properly seize the opportunities that ASEAN membership brings, Timor-Leste’s leadership will be required to do the homework, including the building up of its institutional capacity, investing in high-quality education, and strengthening its regulatory environment. Sectors such as agriculture, tourism, and the blue economy have been identified as those with key growth potential for Timor-Leste.

Ultimately, while accession to ASEAN is undoubtedly a significant milestone for Timor-Leste, its leadership must ensure that the country is fully prepared to leverage the economic opportunities that ASEAN membership brings. Doing so would not only facilitate the country’s much-needed economic development, but also help preserve the country’s impressive democratic gains since independence.