The quest for territory, influence, and resources is increasingly transcending Earth’s boundaries, reaching the mysterious reaches of the far side of the Moon and Cislunar space, the region of space from the Earth out to, and including, the region around the surface of the Moon. The secrets these regions harbour and the lunar resources they promise have turned the Moon into the centrepiece of space competition for scientific purposes as well as for military, commercial, and geopolitical reasons.

As recent technological advancements propel lunar exploration forward, a number of countries and private companies are pushing for a presence on the Moon and in Cislunar space. This raises several urgent, often uncomfortable, questions for the future: what happens if valuable lunar resources are found and a new gold rush engulfs both countries and corporations? Crucially, how can we ensure the peaceful and sustainable exploration of outer space and prevent it from becoming yet another arena of human conflict?

During the Cold War, space was used as a proxy battleground for geopolitical dominance. When the United States launched the Apollo programme in 1961, the mission to land astronauts on the Moon was intended to showcase the country’s technological superiority. By the 1980s, space became an increasingly important component of military power, with the American military adopting space-based technologies like navigation and remote sensing for dual-use benefits. Budget cuts after the Cold War led the US to leverage the private sector and outer space capabilities have become a new frontier of economic potential. According to a new report published by the World Economic Forum, the space economy is expected to reach $1.8 trillion by 2035 as space-enabled technologies advance. There is a growing realisation within policy circles that the space economy could not only open up commercial opportunities but also promise to help tackle some of the world’s greatest challenges, such as climate change.

Interest in Cislunar space and lunar colonisation is surging across the world, fuelled in large part by the desire to harness the Moon’s potential resources. Lunar probes have established that the Moon contains many common minerals, including basalt, iron, quartz, silicon (needed for microchips), manganese (used for batteries) and titanium (an important component of missiles). There is also a high chance that the Moon has minable deposits of lithium, chlorine, beryllium, uranium and thorium. The potential strategic advantages of lunar exploration – whether for Earth-based monitoring and communication or for long-term space exploration – are significant.

The United States and China are the main competitors in the modern space race, but more than 20 other countries have ambitious plans for lunar exploration, including Japan, India, and Russia. NASA’s Artemis programme aims to return humans to the Moon in 2025, the first human landing in over 50 years. Beyond advancing scientific insights, the objective is to provide practical benefits for the commercial sector and the military while reinforcing US global leadership. Companies such as SpaceX and Blue Origin are key suppliers of technology for the Artemis programme. Meanwhile, the Air Force Research Laboratory is sponsoring an experimental satellite called Oracle, designed to monitor Cislunar space.

American dominance in space is increasingly being challenged by China’s advancements in lunar exploration. In a historic achievement, China’s Chang’e-4 became the first spacecraft to successfully land on the far side of the Moon. Future plans include collaborating with Russia on the development of the International Lunar Research Station. Sweden, France, Italy and others, have committed to joining China’s forthcoming lunar lander mission. Some US officials have expressed concerns that China’s objectives might involve securing critical lunar resources and strategic territories on the Moon for military purposes. Although Beijing strongly denies these claims, it acknowledges and heavily emphasises the economic significance of space power, much like the United States. India has recently, through its Chandrayaan missions, established itself as an emerging force in space exploration by achieving the first-ever landing in the Moon’s South Pole region. Russia, with its long history of lunar exploration, also remains a significant player shaping lunar politics.

While various nations vie for a presence on the Moon and in Cislunar space, numerous startups and established aerospace companies, such as Japan-based iSpace and US-based Astrobotic, are pioneering the commercialisation of lunar exploration. These companies are driving advancements in space mining technology, which could benefit both space travel and applications on Earth. The Moon has therefore become a focal point not only of geopolitical but also commercial ambitions. Therefore, experts suggest that the current space race is more consequential than the first, with stakes including not only prestige but vast lunar resources.

Different areas of the Moon offer varying benefits for communication, solar power, and access to lunar resources. The Moon’s South Pole stands out as a particularly advantageous spot, due to its continuous sunlight and water ice deposits. Despite extreme conditions, this lunar region offers unique opportunities for deep-space discoveries that could enhance our understanding of the universe and enable further ventures into the solar system. The surface of the South Pole is riddled with craters covered in ancient ice, which could provide scientists with a record of lunar volcanoes and the origin of oceans, among other things. If present in sufficient quantities, ice could be used for drinking, cooling equipment, and producing hydrogen for fuel and oxygen. Therefore, space agencies and private companies consider the exploration of the Lunar South Pole as key to future Moon exploration, lunar mining, and potential missions to Mars.

India was the first country to successfully land on the Moon’s South Pole. NASA, too, aims to explore this region through its Artemis programme. NASA’s Artemis I flight-test will deploy two CubeSats to search for lunar resources and a water-hunting rover, VIPER, for resource-mapping. Beyond robots, human exploration of this uncharted Moon area promises significant scientific discoveries, potentially revolutionising deep space exploration and enabling lunar resource mining. The latter could reduce the need to transport supplies like oxygen and hydrogen from Earth. According to Lockheed Martin, the Moon could turn into a central hub for spacecraft traveling between Earth and Mars.

Another strategically important area of the Moon is the side of it that remains invisible from Earth. This unexplored region holds crucial information about the early history of our solar system. China is the only country to have successfully landed on the Moon’s Far Side, marking a historic achievement in its space race with the US. If successful, China’s mission could help answer fundamental questions about the moon’s formation and evolution and shed light on the history of the entire solar system. Additionally, this mission will pioneer experiments to determine if plants can grow on the Moon and conduct the first radio astronomy experiments from the Moon’s Far Side.

Shielded from Earth’s radio noise, the Moon’s far side is ideal for radio astronomy in the low-frequency band, which cannot be conducted from our planet because of various radio interferences and other factors. China’s Chang’e-4 mission, equipped with the Low Frequency Spectrometer (LFS) and the Queqiao satellite, aims to study the space environment and cosmic phenomena from the far side’s shielded vantage point. Its findings could greatly enhance our understanding of the universe.

There is growing recognition that access to and control over Cislunar space is pivotal for maintaining space dominance and national security. Establishing infrastructures in the Cislunar area offers significant military, commercial, and scientific opportunities. Cislunar space is crucial for a range of activities, such as satellite positioning and communications, and space stations that can serve as waypoints for deep space missions and provide support for human and robotic operations on the Moon. The US Space Force is focusing on developing Cislunar space surveillance sensors, high bandwidth communications, and navigation systems. Other nations, particularly China, are also pursuing Cislunar capabilities. Chinese plans for a comprehensive infrastructure in this region include systems for data communication, positioning, navigation, and timing (PNT), as well as space situational awareness services. Private sector entities are also interested in the space between Earth and our celestial neighbour and the region is poised to become a contested and highly strategic frontier.

As more countries and private actors compete for lunar resources conflicts could arise from overlapping claims. Of particular concern is the potential militarisation of the Moon. Placing military assets on the Moon or in Cislunar space could provoke suspicion and increased military activity from other nations. A military clash in space (regardless of whether it is intentional or accidental) is becoming more likely as the mass of traffic in space increases: around 100 states have a presence in space, as well as non-governmental organisations and companies. The danger of a satellite spinning out of its orbit causing a hostile international incident and escalating tensions has never been higher. Armed conflict in outer space could devastate civilian infrastructure, as space-based infrastructure is crucial for communication, navigation, and data transfer systems that support both terrestrial and space operations. We also rely on satellites to guarantee human security in areas such as natural disaster mitigation or enhanced transport security. As the number of assets in Cislunar space grows, so does their vulnerability to cyber threats, kinetic and non-kinetic attacks, electromagnetic pulse (EMP) threats, hacking, jamming, and spoofing. To safeguard the integrity and functionality of critical space assets, it is imperative to implement advanced cybersecurity measures that are robust enough to prevent disruptions.

We are seeing a blurring of lines between the lunar and terrestrial. The impact of lunar activities on geopolitics on Earth – and vice versa – is profound. Advances in space technology frequently lead to innovations with terrestrial applications, affecting industries and economies; the whole globalised economy is becoming increasingly overdependent on space-based satellite transmission. If the extraction of rare elements from the Moon becomes feasible, control over these lunar resources will significantly impact markets and economies on Earth.

The absence of up-to-date international laws governing lunar activities both reflects and exacerbates Earth-based geopolitical tensions. The Outer Space Treaty of 1967 declared that outer space exploration should benefit all countries and prohibited nations from claiming sovereignty over lunar territory. Space activity has evolved significantly since then, while most of the international instruments that govern space activities remain rooted in the Cold War era. In an attempt to fill this regulatory gap, NASA and the US State Department launched the Artemis Accords in 2020, which establish principles for lunar operations, guiding public and private entities in the emerging space economy. Key provisions include commitments to transparency, peaceful use of space, and the protection of historic sites and artefacts.

There are growing concerns about whether the Outer Space Treaty and more recent accords are robust enough to prevent dangerous undercurrents from creating new frontiers of conflict on Earth and in space. Some also fear that the accords represent a unilateral effort by the US to impose its will and values on the international community. So far, the world’s top spacefaring nations are not cooperating sufficiently on rules for activities and resource extraction in outer space. This lack of established rules and codes of conduct is exacerbating tensions among key players.

Outer space presents complex challenges that cannot be adequately understood or addressed through traditional frameworks. Issues such as space debris management, cybersecurity threats, and the governance of space resources require consideration of not only physical space but also economic, environmental, technological, and diplomatic factors. To ensure the peaceful and sustainable exploration of the lunar environment, states need to embrace a paradigm shift – away from zero-sum games to cooperation and multi-sum thinking. This is essential for creating a harmonious a future for space, where collective advancements outweigh individual rivalries.

There is a real danger that what happens in space will be decided by a select few, in particular the governments of large space-faring states and profit-driven multinational corporations. The Moon should therefore be treated as a ‘Global Commons’ accessible for use by the entire international community. Unilateral demands that aim to limit access to the Moon for specific entities are unjustifiable. It is crucial to guarantee freedom of passage and navigation between the Earth and the Moon for all capable countries and companies. This aligns with the principles set forth by the United Nations Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space (COPUOS), which views space and celestial bodies as the ‘common heritage of mankind’.

We need a new comprehensive approach to understanding and navigating the emerging geopolitics of outer space – a method I call Meta-Geopolitics – that focuses on seven core state capacities: socio-cultural, economic, domestic, environmental, technological, military, and diplomatic. Understanding these capacities in conjunction with each other will help states secure their national interests while contributing to a stable and sustainable outer space environment. Shared leadership entails a collaborative approach to managing and conducting activities on the Moon and in Cislunar space, where multiple nations, organisations, and stakeholders develop policies, rules, and decisions through consensus. This involves distributing leadership roles and responsibilities among different entities. Each participant may lead in areas where they have specific expertise or resources, contributing to a more balanced and inclusive approach to lunar exploration. Policymakers could perhaps take inspiration from the international agreements that help protect the Antarctic, manage the commercial exploitation of the oceans and combat the sources of global warming. They are a lesson for the type of coalitions needed to shield space from the worst sides of humanity.

Until recently, the inaccessibility of space meant that no question was raised as to whether any country or entity owns or has exclusive rights to all or part of any of it. Instead, by default, it has been regarded as the shared possession of humanity, a terra nullius open to everyone. This is becoming an increasingly dangerous strategy as a lack of regulation for commercial exploitation is likely to lead to conflicts on Earth or in space, or both – especially when one considers that the history of humankind is in large part a story of competition and conflict.

Safeguarding outer space from natural and human-made threats must be a priority. This should include enhancing the security of lunar and outer space activities by establishing international protocols to address and mitigate potential threats. Space debris, space traffic management issues, rendezvous and proximity operations (RPO’s), and increased militarisation represent collective frontier challenges that must be addressed collaboratively. The collective nature of security challenges, from unintentional accidents in orbit to malign activities in outer space, highlights the necessity of joint efforts for the long-term benefit of humanity as a whole. In this context, middle and smaller powers have the opportunity to play a crucial role. For example, the European Space Agency has spearheaded the Zero Debris Charter, aimed at tackling the challenges posed by space traffic and debris. Building on these initiatives will be key to ensuring the sustainable and peaceful use of our celestial neighbourhood. It is important to remember that if outer space becomes critically unsafe, it will not be selectively unsafe, but will be unsafe for all states and private corporations, without exception.

The geopolitical significance of the Moon has evolved continuously over recent decades. What began as a bipolar competition between the Soviet Union and the United States in the 1950s has expanded into a complex arena involving a multitude of actors vying for a presence on the Moon and in Cislunar space, including established spacefaring nations, emerging space powers, and private companies. The Moon’s South Pole, Far Side, and Cislunar space stand out as contested regions in a battle for lunar resources and power.

Recognising the Moon as a global commons and fostering cooperation are means to ensuring the peaceful exploration of both the lunar surface and Cislunar space. By adopting strategies that balance diverse national interests with the imperatives of space security and sustainability for all, we can transform what could be an extra-terrestrial battleground into a platform for unprecedented scientific discovery and economic opportunity. The Moon, once a symbol of Cold War rivalry, might yet become a catalyst for the collective advancement of humanity on Earth and beyond.