Notebooks

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The war for oil never really went away

From Venezuela to Ukraine, the struggle for oil continues to shape global conflict.

Paul Josephson January 12, 2026

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The Islamic Republic’s Trump problem

With Iran crippled by renewed popular unrest and economic turmoil, President Trump is presented with an opportunity to dismantle the regime and its nuclear programme for good.

Charlie Laderman January 8, 2026

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A return to the classical foundations of American statecraft

Trump's coup in Caracas exemplifies a form of statecraft rooted in antiquity – and in America's founding.

Joshua Treviño January 8, 2026

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After the Eighth Great Power

Each communications revolution rewrites the political order. Democracies will not survive by clinging to broadcast certainties or chasing every viral falsehood.

Lisa Klaassen January 7, 2026

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Iran’s new age of revolutions

Iran's protests are part of a new phase of unrest in the Islamic Republic that began in 2017, when calls for reform were displaced by demands for regime change.

Kasra Aarabi and Saeid Golkar January 6, 2026

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The art of agent-running

Agent-running is all about people. The safety of agents – who often treat their case officers as confessional, priest-like figures – is paramount.

Marc Polymeropoulos January 6, 2026

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Strongmen of the New World

Familiarity with strong-armed tactics is one of the reasons why Latin Americans tend to understand Trump’s brand of populism.

Andreas Campomar January 5, 2026

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The authoritarian’s handbook

Examining the strategy of different authoritarian rulers reveals why, in a world of great power politics, a 'Maduro moment' may not be the fate of all despotic regimes.

Edward Howell January 5, 2026

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How Japan marks the turning of the year

New Year is the time when Japan’s Shinto underpinnings really reveal themselves, in rituals of forgetting, purification, and beginning again.

Christopher Harding December 31, 2025