In the early hours of 13 June, dozens of Israeli pilots climbed into their aircraft and climbed steeply into the eastern skies. Caught entirely off-guard, Tehran was soon bitterly complaining of a pre-emptive strike on its airbases and nuclear-related sites. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had just initiated the most ambitious mission its air force had undertaken since the October 1973 Yom Kippur War. By 6am, the scores of machines, including fighter jets, refuellers and spy planes, were back, with ‘all goals achieved’. The complex operation involving flights up to 1,000 miles away was dubbed Operation Rising Lion.

When first studied, Israel’s early morning attacks on Iran were assumed to be another limited operation to remove the enduring sore of Tehran’s nuclear sites, which potentially threatened the future of Jerusalem and Tel Aviv. We saw similar tit-for-tat raids between the two states on 14 April and 1 October last year. This time, those observations were wrong. It now transpires that Rising Lion was merely the tip of something far more comprehensive. Nothing less than a long-planned attempt to decapitate the Iranian regime, force on it regime change, kill its senior commanders, destroy its air defences, as well as neutralise its nuclear ambitions.

Iran has loomed over Israel like a malevolent shadow for 46 years. Ever since the overthrow of the Imperial State of Iran, once a close friend of Israel under Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, and its replacement in 1979 by a militant Shia Islamic Republic, led first by Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, and now Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Israel and Iran have been mortal enemies. A core belief of the Iranian regime’s leaders is that Israel has no right to exist and must be ‘erased from the page of time’. Security analysts have long felt the day would come when these two states would square off for a fight to the death.

That day is with us now. Netanyahu chose his moment when all Iran’s allies, mostly terrorist detachments in Syria, Lebanon, Palestine and Yemen, were at their weakest. Ever since the 7 October 2023 attacks, if at huge cost in global goodwill, Israeli Defence Force (IDF) incursions have been grinding down these regional militias, such as the Houthis, Hamas and Hezbollah, a process aided in December 2024 by the sudden collapse of President Bashar al-Assad’s repressive regime in Syria. Iran, once Persia, has always seen itself as the pre-eminent force in the region going back to biblical days (think the Medes and Persians of the Old Testament), but is now militarily alone with few friends, though supported diplomatically by Russia and China. Most of the Arab Gulf states, led by Saudi Arabia, are of a Sunni Islamic persuasion, and were fearful of modern Iran’s dominance of the region and attempts to gain nuclear weaponry. Success in acquiring a weapon of mass destruction would certainly lead to the Saudis feeling the need to have one too, with nuclear proliferation rife across the troubled region. However, all states will be equally nervous of Israel attempting to fill any power vacuum in Iran’s absence.

The immediate trigger for Israel’s action seems to have been the statement on 12 June by the UN’s nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) which declared Iran in breach of its non-proliferation obligations for the first time in 20 years. Its 35-nation Board of Governors concluded that Iran was enriching far more uranium than needed for its civilian power plants. The only alternative reason could be the development of nuclear warheads for its stock of ballistic missiles. The IAEA knew of undeclared underground facilities, to which it was not allowed access, where this weaponisation of nuclear capability was probably taking place. In this respect, accusations that a Gulf state had weapons of mass destruction seem substantiated. Israel felt it had the moral, if not the legal, authority to act.

Until 2018, Iran had agreed to abide by the conditions of an international Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), signed in 2015 between the international community, including Britain and the US, and Tehran. It provided oversight over every aspect of Iran’s nuclear programme and controlled the speed at which it was developed for peaceful use. President Trump pulled the US out of the JCPOA during his first term in 2018, since when it has unravelled. Probably due to him, we are where we are now. Afterwards, Iran recommenced its enrichment programme and showed no signs of wanting a new deal or treaty with President Biden or anyone else. An Iranian bomb would amount to a nightmare for the whole world.

Operation Rising Lion appears to have been planned in great detail, possibly for years. The addresses of nine senior nuclear scientists, and a conference of six top Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) generals were targeted by Israeli air-launched missiles and all were killed; others have been assassinated by drone. Up to 120 Iranian air defence systems, tracked and wheeled anti-aircraft guns, missiles and radars, were attacked and destroyed, indicating a very high degree of surveillance by Israeli special forces. Israeli aircraft, including F-15 and F-35 fighters and KC-46 refuelling tankers, for the first time were able to rehearse over and transit through Syrian airspace, thanks to the implosion of the Assad regime. Iran’s defences are reportedly so effectively neutralised that Israel now claims its pilots can fly over Tehran with little interference, a massive humiliation for the Ayatollah and his personal army, the IRGC. Israeli combat drone footage has been released, of the kind we are used to from Ukraine, of multiple Iranian military vehicles disappearing in puffs of smoke. They claim in return to have shot down two Israeli aircraft with no word as to the fate of the aircrew. This war, like all others, will be case of sifting through claim and counter-claim.

We know short-range drones were assembled and launched from secret Mossad bases inside Iran, suggesting much top-secret preparation beforehand. I am struck by the similarities with Kyiv’s recent audacious drone assaults on Russian airbases and wonder to what extent their two foreign intelligence services, Mossad and FISU, are working together. At the beginning of this year, there were suggestions that Patriot batteries had been transferred from Israel to guard the skies of Ukraine. In its latest iteration, the ground-to-air defensive missile systems manufactured by Raytheon in Tucson, Arizona, which is short for ‘Phased Array Tracking Radar to Intercept on Target’, are able to intercept ballistic missiles. ‘How odd’, I remember thinking. ‘I thought Israel remained very much on edge against incoming missiles and needed all the air defence it could get.’ Whether or not the transfer took place, it was talked up, possibly as part of a deception campaign by Israel and Ukraine to put Iran off guard.

The campaign was devised with air defences at Kermanshah, Tabriz and elsewhere hit first, followed by drone and ballistic missile manufacturing sites, launch stations used in the air assaults on Israel of 14 April and 1 October last year, and energy infrastructure such as the oil depot at Shahran, north-west of Tehran. ‘We’re targeting things that might have threatened us in the past or could do in the future’, an IDF officer observed.

Other areas attacked included nuclear facilities at Isfahan and one in the mountains around Natanz, 140 miles south of Tehran. This latter, where Uranium-235 is enriched for nuclear power or weapons, causes the most worry. The Israelis have severely damaged much of the surface infrastructure, but Netanyahu may task a special forces raid to land and enter its subterranean tunnels, sited so deep as to be beyond the range of all-known western munitions, to destroy nuclear-associated equipment beyond repair. Operation Rising Lion would be pointless if it did not. Yet, the Israeli prime minister is very conscious of the risks of such an endeavour, as his brother Yonatan was killed leading a similar commando raid to release hostages at Entebbe in 1976.

The international community at UN and G7 assemblies is urging de-escalation, but neither Iran nor Israel wants a deal. Both are bent on vengeance. Between the lines, the ceasefire calls are half-hearted as no one wants Iran to acquire a nuclear weapon, and many would secretly like to see a bloodless regime change in Tehran, but their proxy, Israel, must hurry up and finish the job. Quite a few would rather like a neutered Iran, a fact they would not dare admit, but will equally not welcome an enduringly powerful Netanyahu. Israel’s kinetic action will be tempered by much of Iran’s urban classes being educated to university level and secretly pro-Western, as occasional demonstrations have shown.

Bearing in mind their relative natural resources and populations, nearly 10 million in Israel, but 92 million in Iran, success is not necessarily assured. However, the Ayatollah’s regime has just announced that Iran will leave the nuclear Non Proliferation Treaty, upping the stakes and forcing Israel to find a way to win. Jerusalem is at pains to stress the conflict is not with the Persian-Iranian peoples, but their IRGC- and Mullah-controlled regime.

However, de-escalation is not a strategy in itself, it being simply a means to lessen tension. None of the would-be peacemakers have yet stated their end-state vision for a de-escalated region. For Netanyahu, Rising Lion represents a once-in-a-generation opportunity to force regime change on its deadly neighbour, and he will likely pursue ‘escalation dominance’ for as long as he can. As El Al air flights to many places have been suspended until at least the end of the month, we can take it that this mission has several more weeks to run.

President Trump, with his mind on his 79th birthday and the grandeur of a US Army parade with tanks through Washington, DC, distractedly claimed the Israeli attack was nothing to do with him, and that no US forces were involved. Once the scale of success became apparent, he changed tack and applauded Operation Rising Lion and reiterated his support for Israel. He later alleged he had vetoed the assassination of Khamenei, though Israel disputes this claim and it was probably never within the Donald’s gift.

Trump’s mixed messaging has perplexed many, for he is trying to dominate a narrative which is not his to control. He cannot have his cake and eat it. However, he has just discovered, contrary to his election promises, that peace in the Middle East will prove for him as elusive as between Russia and Ukraine. And with that, his hopes for a Nobel Peace Prize disintegrate.

Israel is unlikely to have attacked without the benefit of strategic satellite surveillance from the US, though tactical intelligence will have come from Mossad. Trump, who visited the Middle East during 13 to 16 May, will have been embarrassed by Netanyahu’s attack, but was certainly warned of it beforehand. The US talks with Iran scheduled for 15 June in neutral Oman, now cancelled, may or may not have been an elaborate camouflage to lull Tehran into a false sense of security, for they were evidently caught off-guard. Understanding he could not stop the Israelis from striking now, Trump probably – maybe reluctantly – sanctioned the mission. He has a large core of vociferous, isolationist Republicans who elected him last year on the promise of no more foreign interventions and a renewed commitment of American assets to support Israel is bound to enrage them, leaving the president between a rock and a hard place.

The UK was likely warned a few hours before of Israel’s intentions, as an Indo-Pacific-bound multinational carrier strike group led by HMS Prince of Wales, passed through the Suez Canal recently and remains within reach in the southern Indian Ocean. It includes the destroyer Dauntless, frigate Richmond, Royal Fleet Auxiliary tanker Tidespring, plus a Canadian frigate and two Norwegian warships. An escorting submarine will also be lurking nearby, while its air component includes 24 F-35B fifth-generation strike fighters, along with attack and anti-submarine helicopters, and drones. I suspect it has already been re-tasked to provide a core function of UK defence, which is the protection of trade, shipping and personnel. Additionally, another RN frigate and a mine-countermeasures squadron is on station at the permanent base of HMS Jufair in Bahrain.

Safeguarding the uninterrupted flow of a third of the world’s liquefied natural gas and almost 25 per cent of global oil consumption through the Strait of Hormuz, dominated for 90 nautical miles on its northern side by Iran, and 21 miles wide at its narrowest point, will provide a maritime headache for Britain and the United States. Sensibly, RAF assets, such as Typhoon FGR4 jets and Voyager air-to-air refuelling tankers, have been rushed from Britain to accessible airbases in Oman, Jordan and Akrotiri, near the Sovereign Base Area on Cyprus.

Prime Minister Starmer will wisely wish to keep the UK out of direct involvement in this conflict, which is the first major international test for his government. This war requires a different response to the UK’s support for Israel last year, where a purely defensive posture saw British assets downing missiles and drones. The hand on the UK tiller for now seems firm and reliable. This is the sort of distracting moment that might encourage China to make a land grab for Taiwan, but they are not remotely ready, being as surprised by Netanyahu as everybody else. In the short term, oil prices and shipping rates will spike, as we have seen before, possibly challenging the UK Chancellor’s days-old spending review, but could settle back as quickly as they rose if traders are reassured that shipping will not be impeded.

The ball is now in Tehran’s court, but we can be certain we are on the verge of a huge regional military and political eruption. In the meantime, Israel will have to endure the pinpricks of ballistic missile attacks on its Iron Dome and David’s Sling anti-rocket defences over Jerusalem, Tel Aviv and Haifa. When swarmed by Iranian munitions, some will get through, but the casualties remain low.

We do not know how weak Iran has become militarily, but Israel appears determined to ensure nothing less than the permanent emasculation of its Shia adversary and to light the fuse of regime change in Tehran. Netanyahu may achieve the former but Iran’s fanatical Republican Guards may ensure the second remains just beyond his grasp.