Why Sweden’s Tidö bloc needs a majority

Sunday 13 September is election day in Sweden. The centre-right government, led by Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson, together with the government-supporting Sweden Democrats, is behind the combined opposition parties in the polls, but the gap has begun to narrow and the final result could go either way.

After the last election in 2022, the Moderates (i.e. conservatives), Liberals and Christian Democrats of the centre-right held a series of meetings with the Sweden Democrats and managed to reach an agreement, which covers a fair number of policy areas and has remained the basis for their cooperation. The negotiations took place at Tidö castle – once owned by Sweden’s own Cardinal Richelieu, the 17th-century chancellor Axel Oxenstierna – and so the deal is known as the Tidö agreement and the four partners as the Tidö parties.

It was not an obvious decision by the three established parties to take the Sweden Democrats on board. The nationalist party managed to clear the four per cent threshold to the national parliament, the Riksdag, as early as 2010, but due to its dubious history and hardline anti-immigration views, it was met with a cordon sanitaire by the other parties.

The Sweden Democrats continued to grow, however, reaching almost 13 per cent in 2014 and 17.5 per cent in 2018, and the manoeuvring of the others in order to avoid contact became ever more complicated and less easily explained, especially since the established parties had started to tighten their own migration policies, and the Sweden Democrats had become a little more mellow. Before the 2022 elections, first the Christian Democrats, then the Moderates and, finally, the Liberals, let it be known that they would be willing to govern with Sweden Democrat support.

The four parties in opposition, for their part, still refuse any form of organised cooperation with the Sweden Democrats. One of them, the Centre Party, was once the voice of the countryside and farming, but has morphed over the years into a culturally radical, liberal party, which cherishes social liberalism, small enterprise and low taxes – but also open borders. Being against the Sweden Democrats has become its core identity.

So Sweden has had an economically liberal, pro-enterprise majority in the Riksdag for 20 years. This will be the case after this year’s election, too, but due to the distaste for the Sweden Democrats, the Social Democrats got to control the premiership between 2014 and 2022.

If the four Tidö parties get a majority on Sunday, the Sweden Democrats will in all likelihood join the government and the Tidö policies will be continued. If they fall short, the Social Democrat leader, Magdalena Andersson, will become PM. Well, if things were that simple…

The Social Democrats get between 27 and 29 per cent in recent polls, which is weak in historical terms, but makes them the biggest opposition force by a wide margin. Then you have the Centre Party, as mentioned, the Left Party and the Green Party.

The fact that all four are highly critical of the Tidö crowd does not make them a harmonious group. The Left Party wants radically higher taxes and a much bigger public sector. It has also had a disastrous campaign, with a large number of candidates having to step down due to antisemitic outbursts. The Centre Party completely refuses to support or even accept a government where the Left takes part. Both the Left and the Greens have declared that they’ll vote against every new government in which they do not take part.

A new Swedish government does not have to have a majority behind it in parliament, but it will not be installed if a majority of MPs vote no. The present ultimatums in different directions seem to make a Social Democrat-led government impossible. If a suggested PM is voted down four times, there will be a new election. This has not happened since the 1950s.

Many commentators say, yes, there will be great difficulties, but, in the end, the Social Democrats will be able to buy the other parties off. Maybe the Left can accept being outside a minority government if they get enormous policy concessions. But it will be very difficult: the Centre Party and the Left Party are at each other’s throats on almost all issues except for their common distaste of the Sweden Democrats. If the present opposition parties get more seats than the Tidö one, election day will only be the beginning of the drama.

Up until recently, it looked as if the Tidö parties would lose their majority. They started doing badly in the polls almost immediately after the 2022 election, and for a long time little changed in the attitude of the electorate. On top of that, there was fierce internal conflict in the Liberals regarding – yet again – the Sweden Democrats. Public confidence in the opposition leader, Magdalena Andersson, was very high.

As election day approaches, the mood has started to change. Both Andersson and her party have lost support. The Liberal leader, Simona Mohamsson, has shown impressive grit and fighting spirit, and, having scored poll results under two per cent in some cases, seems to be on her way to reaching and passing the four per cent level.

Four more years of the Kristersson government would be a surprise in a world of grumpy electorates, but it would not be unearned. The government has sharpened criminal policy in a stern and thorough way, and has brought immigration under control. Sweden has joined Nato and is on its way to spending 3.5 per cent of GDP on defence. New nuclear power is welcomed. Inflation is low. Economic growth is high. The overall tax burden hasn’t been this low in 50 years.

A Social Democrat-led government – if anyone can come up with a way of putting it in place – would change some of this. But not all of it. Sweden will remain in Nato. Increased defence spending is supported by all parties in the Riksdag. The Social Democrats have made it clear that they accept most if not all of the changes in criminal and migration policy – they know how popular they are.

Nuclear power is very unpopular in red and green circles and may be sacrificed in negotiations. Economic freedom and entrepreneurship will fare worse than otherwise. Some taxes will be raised, but hardly to Danish or French levels. The 1970s version of Sweden may be popular with the Bernie Sanders and Polly Toynbees of this world, but not with the majority of Swedes.